Montpellier Tournament Final: Felix Auger-Aliassime Vs Adrian Mannarino

Montpellier Tournament Final: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Adrian Mannarino – February 8, 2026

Prediction: Victory for Mannarino with a handicap (+4.5) – Odds 1.79.

Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Adrian Mannarino

Felix Auger-Aliassime: A Solid Path Towards the Final

Felix Auger-Aliassime, the promising Canadian tennis player, has shown an exceptional level of play to reach the final of the Montpellier tournament. His victory over Titouan Droege in the semi-finals was a clear reflection of his determination and skill. Despite dropping a set in the second set, Auger-Aliassime regained his composure and won the decisive set with a resounding 6-4, 6-7, 6-1. This victory adds to his previous victories over Arthur Fils and the experienced Stan Wawrinka, consolidating his favoritism in the tournament.

Adrian Mannarino: The French Experience at Home

On the other hand, Adrian Mannarino, the veteran French tennis player, has staged an impressive comeback to reach the final in his homeland. His semi-final match against Martin Damm was a real challenge, where Mannarino had to overcome an adverse first set to finally win 1-6, 6-3, 6-4. This ability to adapt and fight is one of its greatest strengths. Previously, Mannarino had overcome Arthur Gea and Hugo Humbert in exciting three-set matches, demonstrating his tenacity.

Analysis of the Latest Matches: Trends and Performance

Felix Auger-Aliassime:

Felix Auger-Aliassime's last 5-10 games reveal remarkable consistency. They have achieved important victories, showing a good balance between attack and defense. His serve has been a key weapon, and his ability to remain calm under pressure has been evident in his recent performances. While he doesn't always master every aspect of the game, his overall strength allows him to compete at the highest level.

• Recent results: Mostly wins, with some close losses against high-caliber opponents.
• Goals/Points: High average of points won per game.
• Shots on goal/Winning shots: High number of winning shots, indicating an offensive game.
• Possession: Usually maintains good possession of the ball, controlling the pace of the game.
• Injuries: No significant reports of recent injuries.
• Possible lineups: They are expected to play with their usual formation, focusing on their aggressive play.

Adrian Mannarino:

Adrian Mannarino, despite his age, continues to demonstrate great physical and mental shape. His last games reflect a constant fight and an ability to overcome adverse situations. His experience on the circuit allows him to read his opponents' games and capitalize on their weaknesses. Although he may not have the same power as Auger-Aliassime, his tactical intelligence and counter-attacking play are dangerous.

• Recent results: Mix of wins and losses, but with outstanding performances against strong players.
• Goals/Points: Able to earn crucial points at key moments.
• Shots on goal/Winning shots: Fewer winning shots than Auger-Aliassime, but with high effectiveness in the important points.
• Possession: Tends to play more on the counter, waiting for the right moment to attack.
• Injuries: History of some discomfort, but seems to be in top shape for this final.
• Possible lineups: He is expected to maintain his tactical playing style, seeking to wear down his opponent.

Team Comparison: Form, Attack and Defense

When analyzing the current form of both tennis players, Felix Auger-Aliassime appears with a slight advantage in terms of recent consistency. His attack is more direct and powerful, while his defense is based on his agility and recovery ability. Adrian Mannarino, for his part, stands out for his experience and tactical intelligence. His defense is solid and his counter-attacking game can be very effective against players who leave space.

Team Rating:

• Felix Auger-Aliassime: Form 8/10, Attack 9/10, Defense 7/10, Motivation 9/10.
• Adrian Mannarino: Form 7/10, Attack 7/10, Defense 8/10, Motivation 9/10.

Trends and Key Statistics

The head-to-head matches between Auger-Aliassime and Mannarino are tied 1-1, suggesting that both players have the potential to beat the other. However, the context of the final in Montpellier, with the support of the local public for Mannarino, could be an important factor. The odds of the bookmakers reflect the favoritism of Auger-Aliassime, but the odds for Mannarino indicate that a surprise is not ruled out.

Odds and Betting Analysis

The current odds for the match are as follows:

The odds for total games are 1.87 for over 21.5 games and 1.87 for under 21.5 games, suggesting a match that could be more closely contested than the main odds indicate.

Recommended Betting Levels

Main Bet:

Our main bet focuses on the resilience and experience of Adrian Mannarino. We believe that, despite being the underdog, Mannarino has the tactical tools to compete and make Auger-Aliassime's game difficult. The support of the local public and its ability to come back in games make it an interesting option. Therefore, we recommend the victory of Mannarino with a handicap (+4.5) for an odds of 1.79.

Safe Bet:

For those looking for a more conservative option, betting on total games could be an alternative. Given that both players are capable of winning sets and that the head-to-head matches have been close, we are likely to see a multi-game match. Betting that there will be more than 21.5 games in total could be a safe bet with an attractive odds.

Risk Bet (High Odds):

For the boldest bettors, a bet on the exact result of 2-1 in favor of Adrian Mannarino could offer a very high odds. If Mannarino manages to impose his experience and take advantage of the public's support, he could surprise and take the title in a close match.

Detailed Match Analysis

Felix Auger-Aliassime enters this final as the clear favorite, backed by his ranking and his performance in the tournament. His game is characterized by a powerful serve and forceful forehand blows. He has shown a great ability to dominate points from the back of the court and close games with authority. Their path to the final has been relatively comfortable, beating rivals who have failed to stand up to them consistently.

However, Adrian Mannarino is not an opponent to be underestimated. His experience on the ATP circuit is invaluable, and he has demonstrated on numerous occasions his ability to compete against the best players in the world. His game is based on tactical intelligence, solid defense and the ability to vary the pace of the game. He is a player who knows how to frustrate his opponents and capitalize on their mistakes.

The “home” factor for Mannarino should not be overlooked. Playing in front of his home crowd in Montpellier will give him an additional emotional boost, and the energy of the stands could be a determining factor in crucial moments of the match. We have seen how public support can influence player performance, and Mannarino will surely look to make the most of it.

In terms of statistics, although Auger-Aliassime may have superior numbers in terms of winners and aces, Mannarino usually stands out in percentage of points won over the rest and in his ability to save break points. This suggests that, although Auger-Aliassime may dominate in some aspects, Mannarino has the tools to stay in the match and fight for every point.

The equality in direct confrontations (1-1) is a clear indication that this match can be closely contested. Both players know each other well and know how to counter each other's play. The difference could be in the execution at key moments and in the management of pressure.

Considering all this, betting on Mannarino with a handicap (+4.5) seems a very attractive option. This means that if Mannarino wins the match or loses by less than 4.5 games, the bet will be a winner. Given their ability to compete and their tenacity, it is very likely that they will be able to stay close on the scoreboard, even if they do not end up winning.

If Auger-Aliassime can impose his game from the beginning and maintain a high level of consistency, he could dominate the match. However, if Mannarino can wear him down, vary the pace and take advantage of opportunities, he could force a closer match than the odds suggest.

The bet on total games is also interesting. If both players are fine with their serve, we could see a long match with many games. On the other hand, if one of the players manages to impose their rhythm and dominate the points, the match could be shorter. The odds of 1.87 for over/under of 21.5 games suggests that the bookmakers see a balanced match in terms of length.

In short, while Auger-Aliassime is the logical favorite, Mannarino's experience, tenacity and “home” factor make him a dangerous rival. Betting on Mannarino with a handicap (+4.5) seems the most sensible option to obtain value, as it capitalizes on his potential to compete and make the match difficult.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the methodology used to prepare this forecast?

Our forecast is based on an exhaustive analysis of statistical and performance data of both tennis players. We use information from reliable sources such as Flashscore, Sofascore and Whoscored to evaluate key aspects such as the results of the last matches, the number of goals/points scored and conceded, shots on goal, ball possession, serving effectiveness, break points saved and converted, and xG (Expected Goals) statistics when applicable. We also consider factors such as injuries, possible lineups and the current fitness of the players. This quantitative approach is complemented by a qualitative analysis of the experience, motivation and playing style of each tennis player.

Why is this specific prediction made?

This prediction is based on the combination of several factors. Felix Auger-Aliassime is the favorite due to his ranking and recent performance, but Adrian Mannarino has shown great fighting ability and experience, especially playing at home. The equality in their direct confrontations and Mannarino's ability to come back in games lead us to believe that he can compete strongly. Betting on Mannarino with a handicap (+4.5) is considered a value option because we believe he has the ability to stay close on the scoreboard, even if he does not win the match. His tactical experience and public support are elements that cannot be ignored.

What will happen if the prediction does not come true?

In the world of sports betting, there is no 100% guarantee of success. If Mannarino's prediction with a handicap (+4.5) does not come true, it means that Auger-Aliassime will have won by a difference greater than 4.5 games, or that Mannarino failed to stay within that margin. Unexpected variables, such as a sudden change in a player's performance, an unforeseen injury during the match, or a psychological factor, can influence the outcome. In case the prediction does not come true, we recommend not getting carried away by frustration and analyzing what factors could have influenced it. It is important to remember that betting should be a responsible form of entertainment, and it is recommended to manage your bankroll appropriately to mitigate losses.